Wednesday, 20 April 2016

Election Update #7: New York

Yesterday there was voting in New York.



RepublicansDemocrats





Trump: 855 delegates
Cruz: 559 delegates
Kasich: 147 delegates

These delegates will go to the Republican Convention in Cleveland and vote for the candidate they were pledged to. The amount needed to automatically win is 1,237, but it's likely no one will get this number.

95 delegate were at stake in this state, and Trump won big. This is his home state after all, and he was always popular in New York. Trump won 60% of the vote, with Kasich second place at 25%. Because of the state's system where the winner takes all of the delegates within each voting district if they win that district, Trump ended up getting 95% of the delegates. Cruz gained no delegates at all, probably because of his unpopularity here. Earlier on, he attacked Donald Trump by implying that New Yorkers like him aren't real Republicans with American values, saying that the people from New York have liberal "New York values." This haunted Ted, and he lost miserably. Kasich got more of the vote than Cruz, which sounds impressive, but he only gained 5 delegates.


Trump won here despite calling the tragedy of "9-11" 7-11 in a speech. No, I'm not joking.


Never Forget 7-11








Clinton: 1,421 delegates
Sanders: 1,151 delegates
(At the Democratic state convention in Philadelphia these delegates will vote for the people who they are pledged to. My count doesn't factor in superdelegates, who can change their mind on who to vote for at any time.)

This was a crucial night for Bernie Sanders, who needed to build on the momentum of winning several states in a row. Despite being down in the polls, his rallies were huge, and this was the state where he could translate enthusiasm into delegate leads, hopefully catching up to Hillary in this delegate rich state. There were 291 delegates, and Hillary won her home state by 12%. Bernie's path to winning is narrowing. The campaign managers on both sides sniped at each other right after the results came out, and different people at Hillary's campaign said that "victory was in sight."

Sunday, 17 April 2016

Election Update #6: Wisconsin

Wisconsin

Last Tuesday the candidates had a Western showdown. The people of Arizona, Utah, and Idaho voted both on the Republican and the Democratic side.



RepublicansDemocrats





Trump: 744 delegates
Cruz: 559 delegates
Kasich: 144 delegates

These delegates will go to the Republican Convention in Cleveland and vote for the candidate they were pledged to. The amount needed to automatically win is 1,237, but it's likely no one will get this number.

Cruz won Wisconsin by 13% on April 5th, ending a terrible week for Trump where he got a ton of heat for saying women should be punished for abortions. He later reversed his positions many times as even pro-life groups denounced him. Trump has a huge problem with women voters, and this just amplified the problem. Also, it lended to the idea that Trump saying what he said at the town hall just lended more to the idea that he's just making stuff up as he goes, and that he hasn't really thought much about important issues like this one.


In Colorado, there was a party convention instead of actual voting. In these situations, Cruz's campaign does really well and he captured all 34 delegates. The Trump campaign does not have many of the experienced analysts the Ted Cruz's campaign does. Trump took to Twitter, as he often does, to call the system rigged and saying the system overrides the will of the people. While Trump is right in that the system is undemocratic, he could have played the system like Cruz did, and now he comes off as a sore loser.








Clinton: 1,289 delegates
Sanders: 1,045 delegates
(At the Democratic state convention in Philadelphia these delegates will vote for the people who they are pledged to. My count doesn't factor in superdelegates, who can change their mind on who to vote for at any time.)

Bernie kept up his momentum by taking Wisconsin on April 5th by 15%. This means that he has won the last eight out of nine states. He needed the momentum going into New York, a state with 291 delegates, that Hillary Clinton represents in the Senate. However, as you might tell from Sanders' accent, he grew up in Brooklyn, while Hillary is from Arkansas.


CNN Brooklyn Democratic Debate and the Dem. Race

The Democratic race has grown to be more and more nasty, but still nowhere near as vicious as the Republicans. The Democrats called each other unqualified, and Bernie has gone after Hillary for holding fundraisers and receiving money from Wall Street. When Hillary told him to apologize for supporting gunmakers in a case by the families of the Sandy Hook massacre, Bernie told her she should apologize to the families whose children were killed in the Iraq war, which she voted for. Hillary said the Sanders campaign was lying about her and that she felt bad for the young people who she thinks were duped into supporting him. 

Right now, they are campaigning in New York, which is partially Hillary's home turf, but also where Bernie grew up. Right now, Hillary has a 12% lead over Bernie based on polling, but Bernie is holding gigantic rallies. 27,000 people showed up to one of them.

The debate was completely different from one earlier in the election, which were essentially polite conversations. There were almost no attacks from any of them. Bernie was sticking to his "stay positive" message, and Hillary's camp thought there was no way Bernie could beat them. 

But in this debate, the candidates shouted over each other and the moderators had to break them up. Bernie sarcastically talked about how Hillary supposedly stood up to the banks: "Secretary Clinton called them out. Oh my goodness, they must have been really crushed by this. And was that before or after you received huge sums of money by giving speaking engagements [to] them? They must have been very, very upset by what you did."

Bernie was hammered by Clinton for his voting against the Brady bill, a set of gun control laws, and why he thinks gun makers and sellers shouldn't be sued for shootings committed by the guns they sold.

Hillary drilled the idea that Bernie was just "diagnosing problems" rather than fixing them, and that she knows how to get things done.

However, she had an awkward moment when she was asked about why she didn't release the transcripts of the speeches she gave to banking firm Goldman Sachs. Hillary received thousands of dollars for the speeches, and Bernie's camp and others say that she may have made promises to the bankers in those speeches and so now she won't release the speeches because she's hiding something. She dodged the question, changed the subject, and finally said that she would release them as soon as everyone else would.